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Climate Change Hampering Cod Recovery, Study Says

October 31, 2015October 20, 2021
by Colles Stowell

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Cold water species like cod don’t like warm water. This we knew. What we didn’t know for sure was just how much. While there are still many questions, a new study published in the journal Science suggests that the warming Gulf of Maine is largely responsible for the inability of cod populations to recover.

For the past five years, environmentalists and some marine scientists have sounded the alarm that Atlantic cod populations have plummeted below the ability to recover from historic harvest levels. They worried adults would not reproduce enough to maintain healthy stocks in the face of such harvests.

Now scientists believe the warming temperatures in the Gulf of Maine are making life very difficult for juvenile cod. The Gulf of Maine, which runs from Cape Cod up to the tip of Nova Scotia, is warming faster than 99% of the world’s oceans, at a rate of .4 degrees F from 2004 to 2013, or nearly half a degree a year for 10 years.

That warmer water has coincided with a dramatic drop in the number of cod that survive to be adults. Scientists now speculate that food for juveniles, temperature-related stress and the growing number of predators brought in by the warmer water may play a role. They suggest that warmer waters may have caused a drop in some of the zooplankton the larval cod feed on.

Of note in the Science article are a couple of not-so-veiled accusations that fisheries managers didn’t react quickly or as aggressively as they should have to reduce the cod harvest in time to allow it to bounce back. The study’s authors, from the Gulf of Maine Research Institute and 11 other institutions, claim that while previous studies pointed to the damage warmer waters could do to cod reproduction and harvest levels, the fishing quota system and subsequent area closures last year were too little too late.

Additionally, the study suggests that going forward, fisheries managers need to take climate change and ocean warming further into account if they want to establish meaningful regulations.

I agree. Here’s why. The warmer climate has attracted some non-native species that alter the existing ecosystem balance. Invasive green crabs are moving north and having a devastating effect on young shellfish like mussels and clams, and they’re destroying the eelgrass habitats – crucial nurseries for a variety of fish and shellfish.

Black sea bass, typically a mid-Atlantic species, are showing up in lobster pots throughout northern New England. Researchers have found young lobsters in black sea bass bellies. Blue crabs so dear to Chesapeake Bay are now showing up in New England as well. Turns out they seem to chase the green crabs around and perhaps eat them. There’s also an Asian sea squirt that is blanketing large seafloor swaths, choking out native colonies of mussels, sea sponges and other organisms.

These are just some of the new players we know of. The Gulf of Maine is fast becoming a canary in a coalmine regarding climate change impact on marine ecosystems. It is an unwilling test case on what happens when environmental changes alter everything from migration patterns to predator-prey relationships. And as this study suggests, these changes have occurred more quickly than fisheries managers have reacted, creating situations where they’re effectively putting out fires rather than preventing them.

I attended an informative workshop last year in which scientists, fishermen, policy makers and activists discussed how to better predict climate change impacts and how to translate that into better management policies and better communication with fishermen. This was a very productive meeting, and one that needs to happen more frequently and with more stakeholder involvement. It bears repeating that more collaboration with all parties is essential to finding solutions to climate-induced marine ecosystem changes.

Here are some additional resources:

Portland Press Herald: has had a very well researched six-part series on this issue. It’s worth the read.

The Boston Globe: Story on the journal Science report.

NOAA report on current global temperature records.

photo: © Joachim S. Mueller for Pew Trusts

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Climate Change: Setting the Wrong Records

October 29, 2015October 20, 2021
by Colles Stowell

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Not surprisingly, the latest global climate stats are discouraging. Last September was the warmest September of combined global land and ocean temperatures during the 136-years of recorded climate history. According to the report from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, this is the fifth consecutive month of setting such an ignominious record.

Here are a couple of “high”lights:

2015 was 1.62°F above the 20^th century average of 59.0°F. The previous record was Sept. 2014.
2015 was the highest departure from average for any month in 1,629 months since the record began in January 1880.
Global sea surface temperatures were 1.46°F above the 20^th century average of 61.1°F, the highest departure for September on record. Scientists attribute this to powerful El Niño conditions.
The first nine months of 2015 comprised the warmest such period on record across the world’s land and ocean surfaces, at 1.53°F above the 20^th century average, surpassing the previous records of 2010 and 2014 by 0.21°F.
Precipitation varied widely globally, with some places like Australia getting much less rain than normal, while some areas in Northwest Africa and Eastern Europe getting 200% of normal rainfall.

What does all of this mean? It means the climate is warming faster than we’ve anticipated in the past, particularly as the range of temperature increases above normal are getting higher. It means this global warming trend is going to continue unless we take some serious steps to curtail greenhouse gas emissions and other manmade climate change factors.

Warming oceans could change how, where and even if we find traditionally local seafood here in New England. The Gulf of Maine is warming faster than most ocean areas on the planet. This trend could force lobsters to move farther north and east to cooler waters, making it more expensive and time-consuming to fish them. Lobster fisheries could effectively shut down in some areas, as has been the case in Long Island sound and around Cape Cod.

I attended a workshop last year about how to better predict climate change impacts on fisheries. The upshot? We need to act now, and collaboratively among scientists, policy makers, fishermen and community activists to figure out a plan to adapt to climate change, and perhaps slow its progress.

Here are some additional resources about the trend:

NOAA Climate Science Strategy

Union of Concerned Scientists: Climate Hot Map

NOAA: What is El Niño?

Climate Nexus

Photo: Calving glaciers are telltales of global warming.

Credit: NOAA

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Climate Change Could Have Unintended Benefit in Arctic

October 19, 2015October 20, 2021
by Colles Stowell

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There have been enough scary headlines about climate change for us to know that warming temperatures could have disastrous effects on our planet. Increased carbon content from industrial processes leads to higher atmospheric and oceanic temperatures fueling melting glaciers and ice caps leading to rising oceans, etc. Read more “Climate Change Could Have Unintended Benefit in Arctic” →

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DNA Sampling Next Frontier in Fish Counts

September 15, 2015October 20, 2021
by Colles Stowell

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Keeping track of marine ecosystem health is expensive, as discussed in the last blog about the NOAA observer program. Monitoring what species are swimming or living where, and in what numbers often means teams of divers counting individual organisms in defined grids over a period of time. This provides a limited view because of the tiny section of ocean surveyed and just a brief window on activity in that grid at any time. And it costs a lot of money. Other approaches include dredging the ocean bottom to see what comes up, which doesn’t do the seafloor any favors. Read more “DNA Sampling Next Frontier in Fish Counts” →

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The Bluefish Mercury Telltale

July 27, 2015October 20, 2021
by Colles Stowell

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It seems as though we’ve had some success in reducing the amount of mercury our coal stacks spew into the atmosphere. And this isn’t just measured in the reduction of coal plants in the past few decades. We’re now seeing the impact in bluefish along the Mid-Atlantic Bight.

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Allowing Wild Pacific Salmon to Define Sustainability

April 29, 2015October 20, 2021
by Colles Stowell

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I write this blog primarily to spread the word about sustainable seafood. “Sustainable” has become a bit of a cliché as marketers stretch and pull the definition in directions that weren’t part of its original meaning. Unfortunately, that leaves many of us with more questions than answers about where our seafood comes from.

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Despite Legislation, Litigation, Pebble Mine on Downhill Slide

March 10, 2015September 3, 2015
by Colles Stowell

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The owners of the proposed Pebble Mine, Northern Dynasty Minerals, are getting desperate. While still alive, the project to build one of the world’s largest mines smack dab in the middle of one of the world’s most significant wild salmon runs has suffered several major setbacks in the past year. Read more “Despite Legislation, Litigation, Pebble Mine on Downhill Slide” →

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Fishermen and Scientists Discuss Climate Change Impacts On Gulf…

January 5, 2015October 20, 2021
by Colles Stowell

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This blog originally appeared Jan. 5, 2014 on the Cape Ann Fresh Catch website.

One of the benefits of writing about sustainable seafood is the opportunity to attend informative workshops and conferences about the subject. The Island Institute hosted a workshop in Portland in December 2014 about current and future impacts of climate change on fishing in the Gulf of Maine. The Island Institute is a nonprofit aimed at supporting the state’s island and working waterfronts. Chief among these is the fishing community.

Scientists from NOAA, Gulf of Maine Research Institute (GMRI) and the National Weather Service met with Island Institute representatives and commercial fishermen to discuss everything from rising water temperatures and ocean acidification to current and future predictive modeling technologies. Fishermen described how they’ve had to change tactics as cod fishing has all but stopped and lobster continue to move down east (north and east along Maine’s coastline) following cooler temperatures. They want to know if they can get more accurate, more predictive data to better plan ahead and adapt for upcoming fishing seasons based on the rapid changes.

Make no mistake. Things are changing quickly in the Gulf of Maine (GOM). In fact, ocean temps are rising faster here than anywhere else in the world. And the dynamic modeling presented at the conference was a bit scary. The water temperature has risen by nearly half a degree Fahrenheit per year for the past 10 years. That’s a big increase ¾ one which analysis suggests has had varied impacts on lobster and cod.

Scientist currently think that warming largely comes from the atmosphere, due to increased CO2 levels stemming from human activity. CO2 accounted for 82% of all greenhouse gases (the main contributor to global warming because it traps solar radiation in earth’s atmosphere) in the U.S. in 2012, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Atmospheric CO2 levels doubled from 1860 to present. Scientists think they will double again in the next 70 years. That could increase global temperatures by several degrees in the same time period … which could have catastrophic impacts on coastal fishing, as well as coastlines, flood zones, real estate, etc.

Then there are the rising acidity levels. Ocean acidification is already occurring. As atmospheric CO2 rises, the ocean PH (which measures acidity) drops. PH levels are measured in very small increments. But when scientists predict PH levels will drop .2 to .4 in 100 years, the ecological impact could be significant. Even slight changes in PH levels could affect the ability of shellfish to develop normally hard shells to fend off disease. The economic impact could be devastating.

Fishermen in attendance talked about seeing cod fishing vanish and watching as lobstering areas have moved up the coast as waters have warmed. The past couple of years have had good to great landing years, but they have come much earlier than normal, and the effect hasn’t necessarily been good for market price. For example, in 2012 there was a glut of lobster on the market with full traps coming early in the season due to warmer water. But the molting season coincided with the prime trapping season, and Maine lobstermen were stuck with low-value product that could not be shipped to Canada (where such shedding lobster are processed) because the plants weren’t open yet. So the industry had a bumper crop, but the downstream effect was a net loss of millions of dollars.

GOM warming also appears to have a negative effect on cod stocks. Andy Pershing, chief scientific officer at GMRI, said his studies so far indicate that warmer water seems to produce fewer cod, meaning catches would be further reduced.

Fishermen at the meeting said they need better communication of trustworthy information so they can more quickly adapt to imminent fishery changes caused by environmental change. But improving the science and infrastructure to be helpful and accessible to fishermen is one thing. Getting lobstermen and fishermen who’ve been doing the same thing for decades to adapt is a much bigger challenge.

One thing is certain. The Gulf of Maine fisheries are changing more rapidly than many northern New England fishermen are really prepared for. Two fishermen from Chatham, Mass. said they’re making much of their living on dogfish and skates and moving further off shore, which is a bigger capital expense. It was a different story 10 years ago, and will be a different story in another 10 years.

Aside from the eye-popping data, the single biggest take-away for me was the kind of collaboration that is essential for developing and maintaining sustainable fisheries. Fishermen sitting down with scientists talking about the data that is now available and the data they would need to make smart decisions. What’s needed next is collaboration with policy makers to effect management plans that will support sustainability and fishermen.

photo: Lobster boat docked at Boothbay Harbor, Maine. William B. Folsom, NMFS